The results of 2022 in the warehouse segment: the vacancy rate has increased

Offer

In 2022, the market of high-quality industrial and warehouse real estate in St. Petersburg was replenished with 13 complexes with a total area of 447.1 thousand sqm, which is 79% higher than in 2021. 189 thousand sqm of the new warehouse space introduced falls on speculative projects (2 times more than in 2021). The remaining projects were implemented according to the built-to-suit scheme (53%) or by the companies' own efforts (5%).

In 2023, it is expected to put into operation about 470 thousand sqm of warehouse real estate. The majority (54%) is a speculative offer. Subject to compliance with the stated terms of entry, the increase in the volume of speculative supply will increase by 35% relative to the indicator of 2022.

Large warehouse projects planned for commissioning in 2023

source: Maris

Demand

In 2022, at least 446 thousand sqm of high-quality warehouses were sold on the market, which is 46% lower than in 2021.

52% of the areas were sold on lease terms in 2022. In absolute terms, the gross volume of lease transactions decreased by 40% compared to 2021.

The main tenants of high-quality warehouse complexes in St. Petersburg were logistics companies (51%). The volume of warehouse space sold in 2022 to companies in the transport and logistics services segment increased 5.3 times compared to the results of the previous year. This fact was caused by the emergence of the need to organize alternative supply chains of goods to the country, as a result of which the demand for the services of transport and logistics companies has increased many times.

Companies in the real sector of the economy have reduced the volume of absorption of warehouse space (-64% by 2021). On the part of the trade industry, the volume of demand in annual terms decreased by -82%.

Examples of large warehouse lease transactions in 2022

source: Maris

Vacancy

The growth of new speculative supply and the release of space in the secondary market, along with a decrease in demand, led to an increase in the average vacancy rate in the market for the first time since 2015.

At the end of December, 3.0% of Class A buildings were vacant (+2.9 percentage points in relation to the final indicator of 2021). In Class B warehouse complexes, 1.9% is free (-0.9 percentage points in relation to 2021).

In total, by the end of 2022, about 115 thousand sqm are available on the market of high-quality warehouse real estate (2.7% of the gross volume of supply on the market).

Rental rates

In 2022, an increase in the volume of vacant space and an increase in new speculative supply exerted pressure on the price indicators of the warehouse real estate market in certain locations.

The average range of requested rental rates by the end of 2022 has changed slightly and amounted to 580 − 760 rubles per sqm per month, including VAT and maintenance payments. Utility costs are paid according to actual consumption.

Development forecast

Provided that development activity and demand remain, and the relative stability of the economic situation in the country and in the region is achieved, in particular, the average vacancy rate in the market of high-quality industrial and warehouse premises will continue to grow steadily in 2023: up to 4.5% – 5% of the gross supply volume. Currently, the largest development potential remains with companies involved in the field of import substitution.